Halal Market Report — Oct 5–11, 2026

Market Reports
Written By Pete Deserto

Halal Market Report

Week of
Oct 5–11, 2026

What moved this week

  • Beef rounds and brisket finally cracked. Choice round primal fell from $308.59 to $294.56 and brisket from $306.29 to $293.61 between Sep 29 and Oct 7 — down 4.5% and 4.1% in six business days, with the Choice cutout off $7 to $375.62. Slaughter rebounded to 548,000 head. This is the first real window on gyro and shawarma inputs in months, so cover what you can now: cattle futures snapped back hard on Oct 7 (October live +$3.98, feeders +$6.65), which says the relief is in the box, not in the herd.
  • Cheese is at a six-year low. CME blocks printed $1.27 on Sep 30, the lowest since May 2020, and the weekly average fell 16.9¢ in three weeks to $1.2940. October Class III settled at $14.96, below most producers' breakeven. Natural shreds and mozzarella get the full benefit; barrels are running 13.75¢ over blocks, so process and American-style items do not. Run the cheese-forward specials while this holds.
  • Dark meat is the only protein going up, and it is going up fast. Boneless skinless thighs jumped 7.06¢ in one week to 166.62¢ and 6.29¢ on the month, while breast fell to 118.52¢ and wings dropped nearly 12¢ on the month to 108.52¢. Thigh meat is now running about 48¢ a pound over breast. If your menu is thigh-forward, this is your cost problem for the quarter — and breast and wings are the offset sitting right next to it.
  • India's monsoon failed and basmati is going with it. The 2026 monsoon finished 12.6% below normal, the weakest since 2015, paddy area is down about 1.63 million hectares, and USDA cut India's milled rice crop to 147 MMT from 154. Basmati is already running 15–20% above last year and new 1509 paddy is arriving about 20% over last year's price. The new-crop arrivals that normally break the market are arriving short. Lock Q4 and Q1 now.
  • Cod set an all-time record; salmon went the other way. Icelandic auctions hit the highest level ever recorded for ungutted cod over 7.7 lb in week 40, on shrinking volumes, with the 2026 Barents quota down 16% to its lowest since 1991 and the 2027 quota still unannounced. Salmon is the opposite trade: Norway shipped a record 165,393 metric tons in September and week 40 moved 26.8% more volume at about $3.53 a pound at the border, 5% under last year. Feature salmon, not cod.
Rising / High Watch Steady Easing / Value

Produce

14 items
Avocados (Hass)
40s mostly $26; record Mexican crop, retail −16% YoY
GOOD VALUE
Bell peppers, green
CA XL $21–25 steady; NY terminal $26–28
STEADY
Cilantro
Mexico 60s $16–18, marked higher; NY $24–26
RISING
Cucumbers
FOB steady, but retail +23% YoY; Sonora rain gaps
WATCH
Eggplant
GA medium $14–17; NJ local $18–24
GOOD VALUE
Garlic, peeled (fresh)
China 5-lb jars $14–16; Spain $12–14
STEADY
Ginger
Brazil 30-lb $22–28 FOB; NY $26–30
STEADY
Jalapeños
Mexico crossings $34–38; East Coast pays $35–40
HIGH
Limes
Mexican dropping into low $30s; spec the quality
SOFTER
Mangoes
flats $7–13 now; Ecuador −52%, Peru short Nov–Mar
STEADY
Onions, red + yellow
yellow 50-lb $13–15; Idaho marked lower
GOOD VALUE
Romaine lettuce
Salinas 24s $30.50–40.75; coastal disease pressure
RISING
Spinach
Central Coast 24s $17.45–20.55, marked lower
SOFTER
Tomatoes, round (fresh)
Otay 5x5 $16–19; large sizes still tight
STEADY

Meats · halal

12 items
Beef brisket
Choice primal $294, down 4.1% in six days
EASING
Beef, ground
90% trim $402/cwt; off $8 but still extreme
HIGH
Beef inside round 168
Choice $376; round primal −4.5% in six days
SOFTER
Beef outside rnd 171B
Choice $393; holding while inside round slides
STEADY
Chicken breast, BL/SL
118.5¢, −3.6¢; weakest demand since 2018
GOOD VALUE
Chicken leg, BL/SL
dark meat firming; bone-in legs 75¢, +2.3¢
RISING
Chicken thigh, BL/SL
166.6¢, +7.1¢ in a week — the one riser
RISING
Chicken wings
whole wings 108.5¢, down 12¢ on the month
GOOD VALUE
Gyro cone (beef & lamb)
lamb flat, beef trim firm; cone cost about flat
WATCH
Lamb, ground
$895.59/cwt, flat on the day, −2% on the week
STEADY
Lamb leg, BRT
$998/cwt; Australian boneless leg ~37% under
HIGH
Whole chicken (WOG)
116.4¢ national, +0.8¢; New York 114.8¢
STEADY

Seafood

5 items
Asian white shrimp P&D
US spot at or near record lows; farm-gate floored
GOOD VALUE
Branzino (sea bass)
Turkish supply down; European values whipsawing
WATCH
Cod
Iceland auctions all-time high; 2027 quota unset
HIGH
Salmon fillet (Atlantic, farmed)
Norway export ~$3.53/lb, −5% YoY on record volume
EASING
Tilapia
China replacement cost rising; US tariff 37.5%
RISING

Dairy

8 items
Cheddar Jack, fancy shred
CME blocks $1.34; weekly average −17¢ in 3 weeks
GOOD VALUE
Eggs, large (shell)
national loose 46¢/dz; NY cartoned 82¢
GOOD VALUE
Feta
Greek flocks culled; $6.10–6.60/lb, heading higher
RISING
Monterey Jack, fancy shred
tracks blocks: $1.34 vs $1.46 a month ago
GOOD VALUE
Mozzarella
blocks at a six-year low; Oct Class III $14.96
GOOD VALUE
Paneer
Class III $16.04 in Sept; October futures under $15
EASING
Plain yogurt (Greek)
NFDM $2.25, near record; Class IV over $20
RISING
Sour cream
butter $1.31, −6¢; cream heavy in all three regions
EASING

Pantry & bread

4 items
Basmati rice
monsoon −12.6%; Indian basmati +15–20% YoY
RISING
Chickpeas (canned)
garbanzo bid $15.25/cwt vs $21.25 a year ago
GOOD VALUE
Cooking oil (soybean)
December board 69¢; stuck in a 65–72¢ band
STEADY
Naan / pita
wheat farm price $6.40/bu vs $5.06 last year
HIGH
Prepared Thu Oct 8, 2026 — market data through Wed Oct 7. Benchmarks: USDA Market News & CME (conventional wholesale); halal proteins run above quoted marks.
Pete Deserto